NBA cup OKC DESTRYOS SUNS (sat semi)

Futures odds right now (via Pinnacle):

Thunder: -250
Knicks: +380
Magic: +900
Spurs: +1100

Market's pricing Thunder at ~71% to win it all. That's extraordinary confidence.

For context, opening futures were:
Thunder: +450
Lakers: +600
Knicks: +550
Bucks: +650

Massive market correction toward OKC after group stage dominance.
 
vogafox said:
Futures odds right now (via Pinnacle):

Thunder: -250
Knicks: +380
Magic: +900
Spurs: +1100

Market's pricing Thunder at ~71% to win it all. That's extraordinary confidence.

For context, opening futures were:
Thunder: +450
Lakers: +600
Knicks: +550
Bucks: +650

Massive market correction toward OKC after group stage dominance.
Click to expand...
that +450 number keeps coming up i wonder if anyone actually GET thunder at +450 or are we all just pretending
obv besides timmy who wont shut up about it
 
big3v3 said:
that +450 number keeps coming up i wonder if anyone actually GET thunder at +450 or are we all just pretending
obv besides timmy who wont shut up about it
Click to expand...
I got em' at +180 after the group stage when they demolished the jazz 123-97 not as good as +450 but still solid
Cashed out half already, letting the rest ride
 
big3v3 said:
that +450 number keeps coming up i wonder if anyone actually GET thunder at +450 or are we all just pretending
obv besides timmy who wont shut up about it
Click to expand...
i got them at +130 after quarterfinals were set figured they were gonna make finals at least
should probably hedge but ill probably just let it ride and lose like usual
 
Pre-tournament +450 After group stage +130 After quarters -250 this is pretty dramatic shift. Thunder hype is real but also might be overvalued at this point?
 
Single game results don't determine fair value. Market efficiency incorporates larger sample size. That said, Thunder's 16-game streak with +15.3 net rating supports current pricing. Not overvalued for sure
 
Ok so heres my actual Sat. plays after thinking about it:

  1. Thunder -10.5 (2u) - sharp side, system supports, Spurs defense vulnerable without reliable Wemby
  2. Magic +4.5 (1u) - value play, Magic's pace could create variance
  3. Parlay: Thunder ML + Under 225.5 (+180) - Thunder's defense suggests low scoring
Sitting out Knicks spread, too uncertain.
 
i think im taking Thunder -10.5 (1u) and Magic +4.5 (1u)
basically fading public on the knicks game, following public on thunder game
 
fuck it im in for lets ride!
Thunder -10.5 (3u)
Knicks -4.5 (2u)
Thunder/Knicks parlay ML (+110) (1u)
 
okok yall convinced me out of the spurs going Thunder -10.5 (2u) even though i need to win this just to get back to -7u on the week
god i hate this
 
i still think theres 20% chance spurs cover. castle goes off, wemby plays, thunder shoot 28% from three, spurs win 115-109
unlikely but possible but still taking thunder tho lol cant fight the tide
 
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