NBA cup OKC DESTRYOS SUNS (sat semi)

[big3v3]

@pokerslave55 Expected value doesn't support it. Thunder -10.5 at -110 requires 52.4% hit rate for breakeven. Actual probability based on closing line value: ~71%. while Spurs ML at +350 would need ~22% win probability. Actual probability: ~15%.
Both are negative EV from sharp perspective, but Thunder spread is significantly +EV play.

@vogafox yeah but sometimes you take the shot for the sweat. ive been tracking castle's shooting splits and usage rate spiked to 28% in that lakers game compared to 19% season average
IF he gets hot early and IF wemby plays and IF okc shoots below their average THEN spurs could cover - too many ifs but i might throw 1u on it anyway

 

[pokerslave55]

heh easy to say when youre not down that much this season

 

[laura_BETTS]

heh easy to say when youre not down that much this season

@pokerslave55 thats the problem though, you're chasing negative EV. castle had career performance against weaker defense. okc is different level
maybe sit this one out if you're already down

 

[pokerslave55]

@pokerslave55 thats the problem though, you're chasing negative EV. castle had career performance against weaker defense. okc is different level
maybe sit this one out if you're already down

thanks for the advice, but im taking spurs

 

[aviator]

But what about the other game - Knicks vs Magic, line is Knicks -4.5
Magic won their group pretty easly, beat the Heat 117-108 in quarters. but Knicks are Kicks, they got playoff experience

 

[Greenpickle]

I hit magic ML at +140 against the heat on tuesday. paolo banchero and franz wagner were cooking. leaning magic +4.5 saturday but havent decided yet

 

[Timmy]

knicks -4.5 is EASY
magic are good but knicks been there before. brunson clutch gene activates in big games
also magic beat the heat but heat are mid this year so not impressive tbh

 

[CatMatt]

Looking at both games:
Thunder -10.5: Strong play, but everyone's on it so I'm worried about trap potential. Line movement supports it though (sharp money).
Knicks -4.5: This is 50/50 to me. Magic's pace could expose Knicks' transition D. Suggs and Caldwell-Pope are solid perimeter defenders.

Might parlay Thunder -10.5 + Magic +4.5 for value.

 

[x@nter]

wait didnt knicks beat magic twice already this regular season? feels like thats worth something

 

[vogafox]

wait didnt knicks beat magic twice already this regular season? feels like thats worth something

@x@nter Regular season H2H matters less in tournament format. Intensity and preparation are different. That said, Knicks won those games 120-109 and 108-101. Both comfortable margins.
I'm leaning Knicks but not confident enough for full unit.

 

[Taekim]

DK has Thunder -10, FD has -10.5, Bovada -10.5
anyone seeing -9.5 anywhere? i swear i saw that this morning

 

[aviator]

DK has Thunder -10, FD has -10.5, Bovada -10.5
anyone seeing -9.5 anywhere? i swear i saw that this morning

@Taekim it WAS -9.5 early this morning on some books but moved fast. S0 now its -10 to -10.5 everywhere

 

[big3v3]

DK has Thunder -10, FD has -10.5, Bovada -10.5
anyone seeing -9.5 anywhere? i swear i saw that this morning

@Taekim Heritage had -9.5 at like 8am but moved within an hour. tracking line movements constantly, that's what I've seen all tournament
big moves on favorite side, public and sharps agreeing for once

 

[_local_nerd_]

bovada showing 73% of bets on thunder spread but only 68% of money so regular public on thunder but larger bets more distributed

 

[Timmy]

oh cmon everyone was on lakers and bucks, i said thunder winning it all
now theyre -250 favorites and everyone acting like they knew lmaooo

 

[x@nter]

oh cmon everyone was on lakers and bucks, i said thunder winning it all
now theyre -250 favorites and everyone acting like they knew lmaooo

Timmy yeah bro you made a huge prediction, our fortuneteller we get it, you made a lot cheers on dat

 

[Timmy]

Timmy yeah bro you made a huge prediction, our fortuneteller we get it, you made a lot cheers on dat

fuck off i told ya do what you want

 

[pokerslave55]

oh cmon everyone was on lakers and bucks, i said thunder winning it all
now theyre -250 favorites and everyone acting like they knew lmaooo

@Timmy congrats man seriously +450 hit must be nice

 

[laura_BETTS]

finals are in vegas right anyone knows when? also is this the same format as in-season tournament ly?

 

[CatMatt]

It's the same format, they just renamed it to NBA Cup this year. Finals are December 17th in Vegas. Winner gets trophy + $500k per player. Semifinals are Saturday Dec 13th (this Saturday).