NBA cup OKC DESTRYOS SUNS (sat semi)

pokerslave55

pokerslave55

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FUCK FUCK FUCK

had Suns +11.5 thinking MAYBE they keep it respectble and I can sweat it out
down 8 at half, I'm thinking ok garbage time might save me
THIRD QUARTER THEY GET OUTSCORED 30-8
turned that shit off at 118-73, couldn't even watch. lost 4 units. this week is a disaster, down 11u total now
bloodyhell why do I do this to myself
 
HughRoller said:
LETS GOOO had Thunder -8.5 alt line at +180, dropped 2k on it
easiest money of my life. SGA is that dude
who else ate tonight?
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bruh i had them ML at +450 OPENING ODDS back in november 💀💀
literally told everyone free money whle yall made bubbles so im up like 15u on this tournament alone lmaooo
 
Damn that wasn't a basketball game, that was a public execution. Suns couldn't generate anything after Grayson Allen ejection (frustrated flagrant on Dort in 2nd). But they were already down 20 when it happened. OKC's help defense was suffocating - every drive met with 2-3 bodies, forcing contested mid-range garbage. Booker 2-9 from three, Durant 5-15 overall.
Saturday's the real question. Thunder -10.5 vs Spurs after that Lakers upset.
 
Just pulled up the tape on that Spurs-Lakers game since everyone's talking about it. Stephon Castle: 30/10/6 on 11-18 shooting. Kid was unconscious in the 4th, hit three straight middies over LeBron. But here's the thing - Lakers' switching defense is trash tier. They were giving up clean looks all night. Spurs had 7 guys in double figures. Thunder's defense is completely different animal. They switch 1-5 seamlessly and their help rotations are elite. So Castle's not getting those looks Saturday.
 
Greenpickle said:
like playing Suns +11.5 because it slowly drains my money. wait no, actually lost on that. been cold lately, might sit out sat.
Castle's performance was sick though. Is Wemby playing or nah?
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@Greenpickle last I heard Wemby practiced yesterday but listed questionable (calf strain)
Line's at -10.5 right now, opened at -9 this morning, moved to -10 by like 2pm, sitting at -10.5 now and sharp money hammering Thunder apparently
 
Watched every minute of that Suns game because I had PHX +11.5 too

quarterstrack:
Q1: OKC 35-28 (up 7)
Q2: OKC 68-53 (up 15 at half)
Q3: OKC 98-61 (up 37, this is where it died)
Q4: garbage time, OKC 138-89

That 30-8 third quarter was brutal. SGA had 14 points in Q3 alone, Holmgren had 5 blocks, Suns just gave up. OKC's third quarter scoring is 4.2 points above their average during this streak. They break teams mentally.
Really sus how consistent it is though...
 
that suns game was brutal, worst loss in franchise history. had a small play on suns +11.5, dead by third quarter
thunder -10.5 saturday seems obvious but spurs just upset lakers. anyone worried about trap game?
 
what the fuck happened??? saw the final score 138-89, that can't be right
 
dunover said:
Watched every minute of that Suns game because I had PHX +11.5 too

quarterstrack:
Q1: OKC 35-28 (up 7)
Q2: OKC 68-53 (up 15 at half)
Q3: OKC 98-61 (up 37, this is where it died)
Q4: garbage time, OKC 138-89

That 30-8 third quarter was brutal. SGA had 14 points in Q3 alone, Holmgren had 5 blocks, Suns just gave up. OKC's third quarter scoring is 4.2 points above their average during this streak. They break teams mentally.
Really sus how consistent it is though...
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same man I watched the whole thing too. couldn't look away even though I knew I was cooked
that SGA stepback three in the third that made it 88-58, that's when I knew it was over and Dort was clamping everyone, Holmgren was blocking everything, they couldn't buy a bucket
 
hold up Castle had 30/10/6 against the Lakers?? kid's only what, 20 years old? that's mature af
but yeah vogafox is right, Lakers defense is terrible. Luka had 35 too and they still lost 132-119. Thunder are a different beast. Their defensive rating during this streak is insane
 
current meta favors thunder's switching scheme. spurs' zone adjustment worked against lakers but won't work here. okc breaks zones too efficiently with SGA/Holmgren two-man game
draft gap too large. taking thunder -10.5 and building parlay
 
Hextech.40 said:
current meta favors thunder's switching scheme. spurs' zone adjustment worked against lakers but won't work here. okc breaks zones too efficiently with SGA/Holmgren two-man game
draft gap too large. taking thunder -10.5 and building parlay
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@Hextech.40 zone adjustment? Spurs played man-to-man the whole Lakers game. Their defensive scheme was drop coverage with aggressive help, forcing Lakers into contested midrange. Different from zone.
 
CatMatt said:
@Hextech.40 zone adjustment? Spurs played man-to-man the whole Lakers game. Their defensive scheme was drop coverage with aggressive help, forcing Lakers into contested midrange. Different from zone.
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@CatMatt mb i was thinking of their game against warriors in group stage (120-117 W) pop ran some zone looks in that one
 
ok but real talk is anyone taking Spurs +10.5 for VALUE? like +350 on ML is tempting even if they probably lose
if Castle goes nuclear again and Wemby plays I look like genius 🤓
 
pokerslave55 said:
ok but real talk is anyone taking Spurs +10.5 for VALUE? like +350 on ML is tempting even if they probably lose
if Castle goes nuclear again and Wemby plays I look like genius 🤓
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@pokerslave55 Expected value doesn't support it. Thunder -10.5 at -110 requires 52.4% hit rate for breakeven. Actual probability based on closing line value: ~71%. while Spurs ML at +350 would need ~22% win probability. Actual probability: ~15%.
Both are negative EV from sharp perspective, but Thunder spread is significantly +EV play.
 
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