world cup 2026 - germany out, netherlands out, who is actually stopping france now

colombia winning group K ahead of portugal was under the radar compared to germany and netherlands going out but it's massive. colombia were dark horse before tournament at whatever odds. they went 2-0-1, won the group, and portugal finished second needing to beat them to advance and couldn't. ronaldo played. drew 0-0. colombia just shut them out
colombia vs ghana is today too. if you want a dark horse at this stage colombia at whatever they're priced is the one i'm looking at more than any of the traditional names
 
my bf had netherlands to make the final at +380 from before the tournament. watched that entire 120 minutes plus penalties standing up in the living room. came to bed at 2am without saying a word. the issa diop header in the 91st minute made a sound i've never heard him make before
 
nataly.k said:
my bf had netherlands to make the final at +380 from before the tournament. watched that entire 120 minutes plus penalties standing up in the living room. came to bed at 2am without saying a word. the issa diop header in the 91st minute made a sound i've never heard him make before
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@nataly.k the 91st min flips is what makes football betting uniquely horrible. you've survived 90 minutes, you're counting down, and then someone scores. there's no equivalent in any other sport. cricket has collapses but at least they take time
 
been looking at the colombia outright price. they got good players. salomon lerma controlling midfield, james rodriguez still dangerous when fit, bernal upfront. if they're sitting at reasonable numbers against the big names they might be worth a small piece for the tournament
 
Colombia's current tournament odds on BetMGM are +3300 to win. They are listed as BetMGM's best potential result in the outright market. Operator confirmed this. If you want evidence the market hasn't fully caught up to Colombia's group stage performance, the fact that they're still at +3300 after winning Group K ahead of Portugal is suggestive.
 
+3300 on colombia with the draw they have now? that's interesting. who do they face in round of 32?
 
checking colombia vs ghana now. colombia -310 to advance, ghana +230. if the market has colombia at +3300 to win the tournament but only -310 to beat ghana in the round of 32 there might be value in the round of 16 futures once we know the opponent
anyway england vs congo DR ended 2-1 whod actually seen it
 
watched. have a small play on england -1.5 goals at +175. thought england should be better than their group stage suggested and congo DR conceded in all three group games. needed england to remember how to score
 
norway vs ivory coast made as well. haaland back. four goals already in tournament. ivory coast -1 at +310 is too much juice. ivory coast was straight to advance at even money is the cleaner bet if you wanted the upset angle. but it is as it is right?.. 2-1
 
yeah haaland had it in the group stage but norway lost to france 4-1 in a match where they were without him for parts. he came back but the team around him looked exposed at the highest level. ivory coast won their group after a rough start. at even money to advance there's a case for it.
simulation crowd on the Simpsons portugal vs mexico thing is funny by the way. 1997 episode. never mentioned the world cup or 2026. bettors put significant action on it anyway and at least one book has a liability on it.
 
people bet on the simpsons predicting a world cup final from 30 years ago and books actually took those bets and have liability on them 🤡🤡 this is peak sports betting
 
why so surprized simpsons became phenomenon for a reason pal also is interesting because it illustrates something about how casual bettors engage with major international events. they bet on narratives and memes rather than expected value. books know this and price it accordingly. the portugal vs mexico matchup is possible from the bracket - it isn't certain - but the money went on it because people wanted to believe in it. that's profitable handle for the sportsbook regardless of outcome
 
im in the moood - went on england full game + both teams to score. congo have scored in their last two group games. england conceded to ireland in the warmup. +165 for btts i think on bet365 which honestly seemed generous if congo have anything about them
 
chapman said:
im in the moood - went on england full game + both teams to score. congo have scored in their last two group games. england conceded to ireland in the warmup. +165 for btts i think on bet365 which honestly seemed generous if congo have anything about them
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if i were you chapman as had england 78.8% possession and zero goals in that game. somehow i ended on england to score in the first half at +180 and phew 💸💸
 
actually watching the tournament for the first time since the group stage. germany going out did something to me. had a small piece of them at +1500 after the draw was made. feel it was fair value at the time. four-time world champions. thirty-one places above paraguay in the FIFA rankings. penalty shootout. sport is cruel
 
the ranking gap on germany/paraguay (41st vs 10th) is listed as the fourth biggest knockout upset by FIFA ranking since they started tracking. fourth. all time. germany got beaten by a fourth biggest all time ranked upset and the football world has already moved on to the next games.

argentina vs cape verde at +450 or whataver they're opening is going to be the most one-sided match in the round of 32. messi going for the record against cape verde is not going to be close
 
HughRoller said:
what bout usa?
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USA up 1-0 first half. bosnia haven't had a shot. then 2nd in second half and bosnia is done

fairly my -280 moneyline looked comfortable but i wanted -750 advance money back badly. im not touching at -750 live anyway. book wants too much juice at that price
 
morgan_c said:
USA up 1-0 first half. bosnia haven't had a shot. then 2nd in second half and bosnia is done

fairly my -280 moneyline looked comfortable but i wanted -750 advance money back badly. im not touching at -750 live anyway. book wants too much juice at that price
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let it breathe man. usa vs bosnia is not the match that could surprise you right... germany/netherlands were the chaos games tho
 
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