world cup 2026 - germany out, netherlands out, who is actually stopping france now

pokerslave55

pokerslave55

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ok so I had germany winning the whole thing at +2000 before the tournament. laid it down in november when they looked genuinely terrifying in their warm-up games.
then paraguay happened 😵‍💫
heeeeell paraguay ranked 41st. went through on pens after drawing 1-1 with germany in 120 minutes. four-time world champions..gone and then morocco did the exact same thing to netherlands 24 hours later. issa diop equalising in the NINETY FIRST minute and then dutch bottle it in the shootout.
so now france have basically had two of their most dangerous potential opponents knocked out for them before the quarterfinals. mbappe against paraguayan defenders. great

who is actually stopping france at this point and is there still value at +188 or is that number already gone
 
man i had a small piece of paraguay at +25000 before the tournament and then FORGOT ABOUT IT. found the betslip in my phone notes yesterday. that woulda been something
also had germany -1.5 in that game at -115. watched the whole 120 minutes with my face in my hands. never been more relieved to just break even on the push.
 
france value question comes down to bracket. germany and netherlands on france's side of the draw. both gone. france's path to the final now runs through paraguay next, then likely spain or argentina in the semis. neither matchup is easy but france played three group games at a level the market hasn't fully priced in yet. mbappe is +275 for golden boot and -110 is messi. those are the two you want to be on.

handle numbers from this tournament are extraordinary by the way. US books tracking toward $4.3 billion total across the tournament. nine times what 2022 generated.
 
ngl that paraguay is the greatest upset ive ever seen in a world cup knockout!! someone is eating very well rn 💀
 
had a tenner on morocco to beat netherlands at around +220 on bet365. felt stupid placing it. feel considerably less stupid now lol
issa diop in the 91st minute mate. ninety-one. dutch keeper saved one and they still went out 3-2 on pens. tournament football is genuinely mental
 
at betmgm: 15.3% of all tickets on france, 20.4% of money. spain just behind at 20.5% handle but most of that was pre-tournament at longer prices. caesars confirmed USA is their largest single liability in the tournament. if usa win this thing multiple sportsbooks feel genuine financial pain. the movement on usa from +5000 pre-tournament to +2500 now purely off two results against paraguay and australia tells you everything about how casual money moves in soccer
 
USA +2500 is genuinely interesting to me. not because i think they win it but because the population betting on them at home is enormous and none of those people care about value. pure patriotism at scale. sportsbooks know this. they priced it to attract action and now they're sitting on it. caesars calling them their biggest liability is telling you something real.
also messi has SIX GOALS in three group games and missed a penalty. think about that. six goals in three group games and then missed a penalty. man is not human
 
australia going out to USA 2-0 in the group stage was depressing to watch. had a unit on them at +1400 before the tournament thinking ancelotti's influence on brazil meant south american opposition might be slightly more accessible this year. wrong
spain 0-0 cape verde thing was the early shock of the tournament. cape verde goalkeeper was unreal. three or four saves that had no right to be made. spain had 27 shots
 
x@nter said:
australia going out to USA 2-0 in the group stage was depressing to watch. had a unit on them at +1400 before the tournament thinking ancelotti's influence on brazil meant south american opposition might be slightly more accessible this year. wrong
spain 0-0 cape verde thing was the early shock of the tournament. cape verde goalkeeper was unreal. three or four saves that had no right to be made. spain had 27 shots
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@x@nter thet spain cape verde game was when i knew this tournament was going to be chaotic. spain were at +450 opening favorites alongside france. drew 0-0 with cape verde and france immediately became solo favorites. spain are still very much alive and playing austria in the round of 32 on thursday but the aura is gone a bit.

anyway england vs congo what is everyone on??
 
England are -380 moneyline, -850 to advance on FanDuel. Congo DR drew 1-1 with Portugal and lost 1-0 to Colombia in the group stage. They're not without threat. But the expected goal differential over 90 minutes heavily favours England. The number to watch is whether England's possession-based approach under the new manager generates more actual chances than it did in the tournament opener. They had 78.8% possession in one group game without scoring. That's a worrying pattern against a well-organised defensive structure.
 
belgium vs senegal is the interesting match today imo. senegal entered at +6600. got absolutely cooked 3-1 by france in the group, lost to norway 3-2, then hammered iraq 5-0 to scrape through on goal difference. belgium are +115 moneyline, senegal +260. senegal at 3-1 after three games is not a team you give anything above +200 against. i want the value but i also saw the france game
 
pokerslave55 said:
@x@nter thet spain cape verde game was when i knew this tournament was going to be chaotic. spain were at +450 opening favorites alongside france. drew 0-0 with cape verde and france immediately became solo favorites. spain are still very much alive and playing austria in the round of 32 on thursday but the aura is gone a bit.

anyway england vs congo what is everyone on??
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as expectet brits did it
 
Taekim said:
belgium vs senegal is the interesting match today imo. senegal entered at +6600. got absolutely cooked 3-1 by france in the group, lost to norway 3-2, then hammered iraq 5-0 to scrape through on goal difference. belgium are +115 moneyline, senegal +260. senegal at 3-1 after three games is not a team you give anything above +200 against. i want the value but i also saw the france game
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closing line value on senegal will tell you whether that +260 is real value or the market knows something about their squad status. the five-goal destruction of iraq is the argument for. the france and norway defeats are the argument against. closing line is probably senegal around +220-230 which means current +260 is slight value. small play
 
anyway iraq 5-0 is not proof of anything. iraq have not played at world cup since 2006. sample is noise 👎
 
usa vs bosnia today too. usa -280 moneyline, -750 to advance. in san francisco. at levi's stadium. with a full partisan crowd. after the group stage performance. bosnia are +800 to win outright
i had usa at +5000 before the tournament and then took some profit at +2500 after the paraguay game. leaving the rest to ride. if they go deep the sportsbooks hurt and i don't feel bad about that at all.
 
HughRoller said:
usa vs bosnia today too. usa -280 moneyline, -750 to advance. in san francisco. at levi's stadium. with a full partisan crowd. after the group stage performance. bosnia are +800 to win outright
i had usa at +5000 before the tournament and then took some profit at +2500 after the paraguay game. leaving the rest to ride. if they go deep the sportsbooks hurt and i don't feel bad about that at all.
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hey roller mate ur taking profit on usa was correct but also wrong if they actually win it lmaooo. patriotism money on them is insane. heard they were the most bet team to win by ticket count for like 6 straight days after the paraguay game. whole country collectively decided this was the year 💀
 
argentina vs cape verde is going to be a mismatch but messi is going for the all time world cup scoring record. six in three group games, missed a pen against austria too. if he gets two against cape verde he's breaking ronaldo's record. every messi first goalscorer prop in the market is going to be hammered
 
messi first goalscorer props represent the messi liability problem for books. same way the usa outright represents the home team liability problem. caesars specifically said "days we get smoked" are when messi scores two and mbappe scores two in the same session. multiple days like that already this tournament

polymarket's world cup volume briefly ran at $1 billion annualised rate in late june. that's not traditional sports betting. that's prediction market infrastructure competing directly for the same player money
 
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