Tennis pre-match vs live odds difference is insane lately

[vogafox]

Past 2 months seeing crazy patterns in tennis odds:
Same exact match situation:
Pre-match: -150
Live (identical scenario): -230
No injury, no momentum shift, nothing changed in play. Spotting this across all major books. Australian Open qualifiers especially wild. Market efficiency gone or books changing models?

 

[genEric]

Been watching tennis 15+ years, started betting last season. These live odds make zero sense compared to what I see on court. Remember that Alcaraz match at US Open? -180 pre-match, suddenly -400 live after literally nothing happened. Now same stuff happening in qualifiers.

 

[morgan_c]

Market behavior suggests books adjusting to 2024 losses. Year-end data shows sharp groups targeted tennis live specifically

 

[bill_collins]

Some context from past season:
US Open 2024: Average live odds shift +125%
ATP Finals: +180% movement standard
Current AO qualifiers: +200% regular
Key factor: No correlation with actual play changes

 

[d.yan]

very confusing... chinese betting group lost millions on US Open after odds jump like crazy many guys quit tennis betting already

 

[chapman]

mate these odds proper mental now. down pub everyone stopped betting tennis live, too much risk innit

 

[Richie]

trust me bros, found pattern in women's qualifiers. when favorite breaks first game...

 

[DagaW]

same "pattern" cost me 5k last month. Books adapted