Odds kept drifting while i was still placing so I ended up with a much better price. Anyone use this on purpose?

bonVivant

bonVivant

New member
Messages
5
Reaction score
14
Points
3
Had a funny one yesterday fancied a horse in the 3:30 at Haydock, had the app out and was faffing about deciding how much to put on. Phone rang before i confirmed, took ages to get off it, came back and the odds had drifted all the way from 9/2 to nearly 7s while I wasn't looking. Panicked a bit and just jabbed accept all to get it in before the off
Horse won. paid out at 13/2 which was quite a bit nicer than what I originally wanted
Got me thinking though. i normally have reject all changes on as my default and I've had loads of bets cancelled mid-slip when odds shift even slightly. Am I playing this wrong? Do you lot have any strategy for this or just hit accept and move on
 
sure mate happens all the time with horses especially. the price moves around all over the shop the last couple minutes before they go off. had the same thing few months back, wanted 5/1 on something i liked, was still deciding the stake when it drifted out to 13/2 while i sat there doing nothing. happy days when it works out
 
there are actually three meaningful settings and most people treat it as binary when it isn't

accept any change: bet goes through at whatever price is live when you confirm. you can get worse AND better odds than you originally planned
accept higher only: bet goes through if odds improved, cancels if they dropped. this is the mathematically correct default for most situations imo
reject all: safest in terms of always getting intended odds but you'll have a very high cancellation rate on anything that moves

if i've done proper analysis and the value is specifically in the original price, reject all. for horses where i'm having a punt and the direction of movement doesn't undermine my thinking, higher only is fine. anyway never accept all as a default
 
The difference between 9/2 and 13/2 is a 44% increase in profit per unit staked. That's not cosmetic. For anyone betting with any regularity it compounds significantly across a year. The "accept higher only" setting is a free asymmetric option - you capture the upside when the market moves your way and simply don't bet when it doesn't. There is essentially no downside to it unless missing bets carries a cost you care about.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top