is bovada rigged??? proof inside

[PokerDuke]

k so i know this gonna sound like typical rigged post but PLEASE read everything before commenting... been playing on bovada for 2 months (mainly holdem + some blackjack) and noticed some REALLY sus patterns. spent last week collecting data + screenshots and either im going crazy or something seriously ain't right with their RNG.
evidence #1: running AA into KK way too often
tracked 147 hands where i got dealt AA. in 23(!!) of them villain had KK. that's like 15.6% when it should be way lower statistically. what are the odds fr??
evidence #2: blackjack dealer bust rate
dealer busting way less than should be possible. tracked 500 hands playing perfect basic strategy - dealer bust rate only 18.2% when it should be around 28% mathematically. explain that???
evidence #3: runner runner beats
getting absolutely destroyed by runner runner cards wayyy more than should be happening. like literally every time im ahead on flop somehow they hit exactly what they need...
detailed breakdown of sus hands:

hand #127: my AA vs KK (again!!), flop A72r, turn K, river K... like wtf??
hand #245: my KK vs 72o, flop K72, turn 7, river 7... how???
hand #398: my QQ vs AJo, flop Q83, turn A, river A... seriously??

additional sus stuff:

getting 3-outed on river way more than should happen
blackjack dealer drawing to 21 with 16 showing like every other hand
seeing same "random" runouts multiple times (how's that even possible??)

my stats:

total hands played: ~50k holdem
total blackjack hands: ~2k
playing mainly 200nl and 2/5
down about 15k total (probably rigged losses tbh)

someone pls explain how this is possible?? got all the hand histories saved + bunch of screenshots too. this aint confirmation bias - im tracking EVERYTHING. anyone else noticed similar stuff?? specially interested if any math guys can check my numbers...
also noticed most sus stuff happening during late night hours (3am-6am EST)... maybe less players = easier to rig??
drop your experiences below, specially if you noticed similar patterns. trying to collect more evidence here.

 

[5.o.2]

Let me run some quick calculations here:

 from math import comb

def aa_vs_kk_probability():
    # Total possible opponent hands after you have AA
    total_hands = comb(50, 2)
    # Possible KK combinations left
    kk_hands = comb(4, 2)
    return kk_hands / total_hands

print(f"Actual probability: {aa_vs_kk_probability():.2%}")

Your sample size is way too small for these conclusions.

 

[franciscaa]

Statistical analysis of your data:

1. AA vs KK: Expected frequency ~2% not accounting for folded hands
2. 23 instances in 147 hands suggests selection bias
3. Need minimum 10k hand sample for meaningful results

 

[PokerDuke]

Statistical analysis of your data:

1. AA vs KK: Expected frequency ~2% not accounting for folded hands
2. 23 instances in 147 hands suggests selection bias
3. Need minimum 10k hand sample for meaningful results

@franciscaa but how do you explain the blackjack numbers??? that's 500 hands!!

 

[vogafox]

@franciscaa but how do you explain the blackjack numbers??? that's 500 hands!!

Mate, I've played over 1M hands on Bovada. These swings are completely normal. You're experiencing variance + confirmation bias.

 

[sapit222]

Been playing on Bovada since 2019. They're licensed and regularly audited. Your sample size is meaningless for these claims.

 

[danadc]

Let's break down the blackjack numbers:

• 500 hands is insufficient sample
• Did you account for rule variations?
• What tables/stakes were you plaiyng?

Need more data for proper analysis

 

[PokerDuke]

ok but what about all the runner runner beats?? that cant be normal right??

 

[Rofac]

Actually tracked this myself using PT4 over 50k hands. Runner runner frequency matches mathematical expectations exactly.

 

[gambleterrorist]

Sounds like classic downswing + tilt tracking. You're only remembering the brutal beats.

 

[y3110w_5t0n3]

reminder that Bovada uses RNG certifeid by Gaming Labs. Been independently verified multiple times.

 

[voxveritatis]

Fundamental attribution error in action. We attribute losses to external factors (rigging) rather than variance.

 

[PokerDuke]

but how do you explain losing EVERY TIME with aces?? like literally can't win a pot with them

 

[jax_garrison]

Tactical suggestion: Record EVERY hand with aces, not just losses. Current data shows clear selection bias.

 

[greg.will]

*Statistical probability lesson:
The chance of losing with aces isn't as low as most think. They're only ~85% favorite preflop vs random hand.

 

[sinner_olaf]

lmao classic tilt post. see you back at the tables tomorrow bro

 

[PokerDuke]

maybe ur right... just seems impossible to be running this bad

 

[vogafox]

We've all been there. Take a break, review your game, come back fresh. Variance is brutal but temporary.

 

[5.o.2]

If you want, share your hand history database. Can help you analyze properly with actual statistical tools.

 

[PokerDuke]

i'll send you some hands tomorrow... maybe im just seeing patterns that aren't there