football weekend

auxerre lille dimanche - lille 4/5 favoris. lille need to win to keep pressure on top 3. auxerre are 16th with only 12 points
lille -1 handicap might be play here, they beat marseille 1-0 last week
 
Looking at both leagues this weekend, here's what stands out:

Ligue 1:
  • PSG heavy favorite vs Metz but odds too short for value
  • Marseille Monaco is the marquee match - Marseille slight edge at home
  • Lens continuing strong form, Nice struggling
Premier League:
  • Arsenal overwhelming favorite but Wolves desperate for points
  • Liverpool Brighton should be open, high-scoring affair
  • Chelsea finding form, Everton unpredictable as always
Accumulator: Chelsea ML + Liverpool over 2.5 + Marseille ML pays around 5.8
 
psg demolished rennes 5-0 last weekend which was insane. watched that match - rennes couldn't get near them. metz even worse than rennes defensively so psg -2.5 might be worth looking at despite short odds
 
x@nter said:
psg demolished rennes 5-0 last weekend which was insane. watched that match - rennes couldn't get near them. metz even worse than rennes defensively so psg -2.5 might be worth looking at despite short odds
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Rennes are 6th, Metz are bottom of the table huge quality gap. PSG +20 goal difference, Metz -19 but here's the thing - bottom teams park the bus against PSG. Metz will have 10 men behind the ball all match and sometimes PSG struggle to cover big spreads when teams play that defensive.
Over 3.5 total goals safer than -2.5 handicap imo, but still need PSg dominance but gives room if Metz nick one
 
honestly does anyone else feel like these ligue 1 matches are rigged sometimes? had paris fc rennes btts last friday and it finished 0-0. absolute snooze fest, barely 3 shots on target total. swear every time i bet on french football it ends 0-0 or 1-0
 
m@rCo said:
greenwood is on fire but 1/2 odds still risky. nice can defend when they want, seen them get draws against better teams
btts safer bet here
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greenwood anytime goalscorer probably better odds than lens ML. he's scored in 6 of last 8 matches
 
lyon le havre dimanche - lyon 11/18. lyon are 5th fighting for europa league spots, le havre are 15th barely above relegation

lyon should win but they've been inconsistent. lost to lorient last weekend 1-0 which was bad
 
forest spurs tomorrow should be class. forest at home are proper solid, spurs are well... spurs. never know which version shows up do you
taking forest double chance. spurs been leaking goals and son's carrying an injury apparently
 
franciscaa said:
lyon should win but they've been inconsistent. lost to lorient last weekend 1-0 which was bad
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inconsistent teams are nightmare to bet on. usually just avoid them completely
 
fuck it, down 3 units this week so going heavy on villa tomorrow. they beat arsenal in stoppage time last weekend, momentum is there
villa ML + chelsea ML parlay, risking 5 units to get back to even
 
franciscaa said:
lyon le havre dimanche - lyon 11/18. lyon are 5th fighting for europa league spots, le havre are 15th barely above relegation

lyon should win but they've been inconsistent. lost to lorient last weekend 1-0 which was bad
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yea lyon can beat anyone or lose to anyone. their europa league matches affect form too, they played thursday sometimes
obviously safer to avoid
 
brest have been surprise team this season in ligue 1. 10th place is good for them, they're usually fighting relegation. rennes vs brest cuold be close, both teams around same level
 
alright locking in for weekend:

liverpool over 2.5 (2u) - defensive chaos both sides
chelsea ML (1.5u) - everton are shaky
psg over 3.5 total vs metz (1u) - metz gonna get demolished
btts marseille monaco (1u) - both score for sure

skipping arsenal at 1.11, not worth the stress. also staying away from most ligue 1 since i dont follow it close enough
 
vogafox said:
alright locking in for weekend:

liverpool over 2.5 (2u) - defensive chaos both sides
chelsea ML (1.5u) - everton are shaky
psg over 3.5 total vs metz (1u) - metz gonna get demolished
btts marseille monaco (1u) - both score for sure

skipping arsenal at 1.11, not worth the stress. also staying away from most ligue 1 since i dont follow it close enough
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That's interesting - what's your reasoning on 3.5 over versus PSG -2.5? Both seem to require PSG dominance but over 3.5 could hit even if Metz scores 1-2 goals
 
CatMatt said:
That's interesting - what's your reasoning on 3.5 over versus PSG -2.5? Both seem to require PSG dominance but over 3.5 could hit even if Metz scores 1-2 goals
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Actually makes sense. PSG have scored 32 goals in 15 matches this season - that's 2.13 goals per game average. Against bottom-half teams they average closer to 3 goals. Metz concede 2+ regularly.
4-0 or 5-1 scoreline hits over 3.5. PSG -2.5 needs 3-0 minimum with no Metz response. Over gives more room for variance.
 
LeeLoo said:
brest have been surprise team this season in ligue 1. 10th place is good for them, they're usually fighting relegation. rennes vs brest cuold be close, both teams around same level
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brest are also in champions league this season which is crazy for them. first time ever. might be tired from european matches
 
crystal palace in 4th is absolutely insane. they're only 4 points behind arsenal. but i bet my pants they'll drop off though. happens every season with these overachievers. remember when leicester won the league? that was different, had vardy in insane form. palace dont have anyone like that
 
shadow123 said:
crystal palace in 4th is absolutely insane. they're only 4 points behind arsenal. but i bet my pants they'll drop off though. happens every season with these overachievers. remember when leicester won the league? that was different, had vardy in insane form. palace dont have anyone like that
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too early to tell. they'll drop off eventually, happens every season with overperforming teams. leicester 2015-16 was once in lifetime thing
palace will finish 6th-8th probably
 
here we go building my accumulator to dig out of this hole:

chelsea ML (1.78) - everton are shite
liverpool over 2.5 (1.91) - both defenses leaking
sunderland double chance (1.65) - derby magic
arsenal ML (1.11) - gotta include it for the boost

total odds 6.23, £50 to £311, arsenal the weak link tho but cant get decent odds withot it. probably gonna lose on a 94th minute wolves equaliser knowing my luck
 
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