clase/ortiz trial pushed to november - 8 months of dead prop markets and still no resolution

[vogafox]

the detection counterfactual is the most uncomfortable question in this case. the answer is probably no. clase's manipulation was subtle enough - individual pitch velocity adjustments within normal variation, specific outcomes on specific counts - that without an integrity firm specifically looking for correlation between betting patterns and pitch-level data against a flagged player it doesn't surface. ortiz was less sophisticated and got flagged faster. clase's two and a half years suggests the market could sustain much longer manipulation by a careful enough actor than anyone in the integrity business was prepared to admit.