Search results

Colombia's current tournament odds on BetMGM are +3300 to win. They are listed as BetMGM's best potential result in the outright market. Operator confirmed this. If you want evidence the market hasn't fully caught up to Colombia's group stage performance, the fact that they're still at +3300...

England are -380 moneyline, -850 to advance on FanDuel. Congo DR drew 1-1 with Portugal and lost 1-0 to Colombia in the group stage. They're not without threat. But the expected goal differential over 90 minutes heavily favours England. The number to watch is whether England's possession-based...

Hugh to your point - the books almost certainly did flag unusual betting patterns. The question is what their process is when they do. They can limit the account placing unusual bets - which they do reflexively and quickly, as we know from every conversation about sharp limiting. They can share...

Worth noting that Governor DeWine's comment about regretting legalizing sports betting in Ohio is the first time a governor of a US state has publicly said this. Ohio legalized in January 2023. Clase's alleged conduct started May 2023 - four months into legal Ohio sports betting. The political...

The indictment numbers: Clase's conduct allegedly benefited bettors by $700,000 total across parts of three seasons. Ortiz's was $60,000 across two specific occasions. The amounts paid to the players are not specified in the indictment but are described as "several thousand dollars" per...

One thing worth naming clearly: this entire conversation exists because a government has decided its citizens cannot make their own choices about gambling. The enforcement apparatus that's been built in response - account freezing, payment monitoring, VPN regulation, 259 arrests - is the cost of...

The official numbers provide useful context. Between 2017 and June 2025, Rp 976.8 trillion flowed through gambling platforms across 709 million transactions. Despite this the arrest rate for individual players is low. The enforcement is concentrated on operators and syndicates for obvious...

This is likely to become clearer over the next tax season when licensed operators have a full year of reporting data. The SIGAP system is capturing transaction data from licensed operators. Whether that feeds automatically to individual tax assessments or requires player self-declaration will...

The crypto route works until it doesn't. Exchange platforms operating in Brazil are required to report large transactions and suspicious activity to COAF. The flow from fiat to exchange to casino to exchange to fiat is traceable if someone wants to trace it. It's not zero risk - it's just a...

@ValDes is correct on the reporting side. What's still somewhat unclear is the practical enforcement mechanism for players as opposed to operators. The operators pay 18% GGR tax (raised from 12% in October). The player-side 15% on winnings above the threshold is the player's responsibility to...

Effectively yes. The gambling industry adopted it from financial regulation.

Know Your Customer. In practice: proof of identity, usually passport or driving licence, plus proof of address, usually a utility bill or bank statement. For gambling specifically it often also involves source of wealth documentation at higher amounts. Evidence that the money you're depositing...

The German framework is a reasonable case study. The GlüStV 2021 introduced some of the most restrictive online slot conditions in Europe. The offshore migration that followed was predictable and was predicted at the time. The cumulative effect of the €1 cap, mandatory delays, and OASIS was to...

The data retention point has merit but worth separating the two questions. Licensed operators under GDPR have specific data protection obligations. Offshore no-KYC sites have none. So the choice isn't between safe and unsafe data handling. It's between regulated handling and unregulated. Which...

The motivated reasoning concern is valid but prefight quotes are performance as much as anything. Canelo has been saying versions of this for fifteen years. I wouldn't weight them heavily against a 63-fight record.

He's 63-3-2 at 36. Three losses across 68 professional fights with Crawford the most recent. The decline narrative is more emotionally compelling than it is statistically at this stage. His output dropped against Crawford but Crawford is genuinely elite. Mbilli's approach is considerably more...

Massachusetts Gaming Commission is also reviewing limiting practices. Wyoming data showed fewer than 1% of accounts limited, mostly for bonus abuse rather than performance. Whether that's representative of larger competitive markets is unclear - Wyoming is not New Jersey.

Worth noting that most books prohibit multiple accounts from the same individual in their terms of service. Not saying don't do it - nearly everyone does and enforcement is inconsistent - but it's worth being aware that the strategy @shadow123 describes technically puts you in breach of account...

New York is the only US jurisdiction that's attempted it formally. The practical challenge is that without limiting ability books would either price markets so conservatively that value disappears or stop offering certain markets entirely. Pinnacle operates without limiting by welcoming sharp...

That's true but it's also why we have independent testing labs and licensing requirements. The question isn't whether manipulation is possible - it is, and some unregulated operators do it. The question is whether assuming it every time you lose reflects evidence or the bias.