Odds kept drifting while i was still placing so I ended up with a much better price. Anyone use this on purpose?

bonVivant

bonVivant

New member
Messages
6
Reaction score
16
Points
3
Had a funny one yesterday fancied a horse in the 3:30 at Haydock, had the app out and was faffing about deciding how much to put on. Phone rang before i confirmed, took ages to get off it, came back and the odds had drifted all the way from 9/2 to nearly 7s while I wasn't looking. Panicked a bit and just jabbed accept all to get it in before the off
Horse won. paid out at 13/2 which was quite a bit nicer than what I originally wanted
Got me thinking though. i normally have reject all changes on as my default and I've had loads of bets cancelled mid-slip when odds shift even slightly. Am I playing this wrong? Do you lot have any strategy for this or just hit accept and move on
 
sure mate happens all the time with horses especially. the price moves around all over the shop the last couple minutes before they go off. had the same thing few months back, wanted 5/1 on something i liked, was still deciding the stake when it drifted out to 13/2 while i sat there doing nothing. happy days when it works out
 
there are actually three meaningful settings and most people treat it as binary when it isn't

accept any change: bet goes through at whatever price is live when you confirm. you can get worse AND better odds than you originally planned
accept higher only: bet goes through if odds improved, cancels if they dropped. this is the mathematically correct default for most situations imo
reject all: safest in terms of always getting intended odds but you'll have a very high cancellation rate on anything that moves

if i've done proper analysis and the value is specifically in the original price, reject all. for horses where i'm having a punt and the direction of movement doesn't undermine my thinking, higher only is fine. anyway never accept all as a default
 
The difference between 9/2 and 13/2 is a 44% increase in profit per unit staked. That's not cosmetic. For anyone betting with any regularity it compounds significantly across a year. The "accept higher only" setting is a free asymmetric option - you capture the upside when the market moves your way and simply don't bet when it doesn't. There is essentially no downside to it unless missing bets carries a cost you care about.
 
the lads have had this figured out for years with horses. you watch which way the market's moving in the last few minutes before the off. if the price is still drifting outward the stable money hasn't come in yet, so you take what you get because it'll keep drifting. if it shortens sharply that's when you want to be careful. nothing scientific about it but it holds up well enough on most afternoons at the bigger meetings
 
trained under coaches who always said data over instinct, always. i carry that here. if my reasoning holds at the new price, you execute, noise is noise. but what should actually make you stop isn't the number changing, it's what the direction of change tells you about information you don't have access to. a horse drifting steadily in the last two minutes usually means nothing. a horse that shortens suddenly when there's no news, no obvious catalyst, nothing you can point to - that's connections money. I've seen it enough times to trust that signal completely. at that point i don't just rejject the new odds. i pull out of the bet entirely and move on. and if i know i want something days in advance i put it on at opening price and forget about it. chasing odds as a market moves is reactive not strategic
 
in simple words acceptin higher only means if odds go up the bet goes through but if they drop it just cancels? so you can never get worse odds than you planned, only the same or better?
 
ak47 said:
in simple words acceptin higher only means if odds go up the bet goes through but if they drop it just cancels? so you can never get worse odds than you planned, only the same or better?
Click to expand...
exactly that. the only cost is you miss the bet entirely when odds drop. but you never accept worse terms than you intended. it's a good asymmetry to have sitting as your defoult
 
i always just cancel when the popup comes up. my boyfriend just hits accept all every time and then wonders why his acca paid out less than he expected. i get spooked and cancel anything i cant read clearly before it moves again
 
yup same here never bet live on something im not actually watching. feels like youre just reacting to a number changing with no idea why it changed. if odds move its usually because something just happened in the game. if you dont know what happened youre already behind on the decision
 
had a nightmare with accept all on a parlay once. each leg came through somewhere between 5 and 15% WORSE than what i put in and i didn't catch it until i looked at the total payout and it was way lower than expected. like significantly lower. lost the parlay anyway but that isn't even the point, i should have been able to SEE what i was accepting before it happened, just slid through without me noticing anything at all
 
pokerslave55 said:
each leg came through somewhere between 5 and 15% WORSE
Click to expand...
This compounds on multiples. Five legs each accepted at 10% worse odds doesn't reduce your payout by 10%. The combined effect is closer to 40-50% depending on original odds. This is precisely why accept all is the worst possible default for anyone building accumulators with any intention behind them.
 
somehow i had the opposite happen last saturday actually. four of my acca selections moved up slightly while i was still adding the fifth one and by the time it went through the potential return was a couple quid more than the slip said. confused me for a second thought id done something wrong
 
or the confirmation loop which drives me crazey. you accept the new odds, look up half a second later and theyve changed AGAIN, you accept again, changed again, accept again. by the time the bet actually goes through youve confirmed it four times and completely lost track of whether you still even wanted it at that price in the first place. happens every saturday when everyones bettin at the same time and the lines are moving every few seconds
 
for serious action i set accept all and move on. at a certain level you cant be cancelling and resubmitting every time a line twitches. small odds differences are noise
 
HughRoller said:
for serious action i set accept all and move on. at a certain level you cant be cancelling and resubmitting every time a line twitches. small odds differences are noise
Click to expand...
hmm and what's a certain level for you mate??
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top