Tennis pre-match vs live odds difference is insane lately

vogafox · Jan 17, 2025

Past 2 months seeing crazy patterns in tennis odds:
Same exact match situation:
Pre-match: -150
Live (identical scenario): -230
No injury, no momentum shift, nothing changed in play. Spotting this across all major books. Australian Open qualifiers especially wild. Market efficiency gone or books changing models?

genEric · Jan 17, 2025

Been watching tennis 15+ years, started betting last season. These live odds make zero sense compared to what I see on court. Remember that Alcaraz match at US Open? -180 pre-match, suddenly -400 live after literally nothing happened. Now same stuff happening in qualifiers.

morgan_c · Jan 17, 2025

Market behavior suggests books adjusting to 2024 losses. Year-end data shows sharp groups targeted tennis live specifically

bill_collins · Jan 17, 2025

Some context from past season:
US Open 2024: Average live odds shift +125%
ATP Finals: +180% movement standard
Current AO qualifiers: +200% regular
Key factor: No correlation with actual play changes

d.yan · Jan 17, 2025

very confusing... chinese betting group lost millions on US Open after odds jump like crazy

many guys quit tennis betting already

chapman · Jan 17, 2025

mate these odds proper mental now. down pub everyone stopped betting tennis live, too much risk innit

Richie · Jan 17, 2025

trust me bros, found pattern in women's qualifiers. when favorite breaks first game...

DagaW · Jan 17, 2025

same "pattern" cost me 5k last month. Books adapted

M.Bato · Jan 22, 2025

Inside source claims it's about streaming delays. Some groups getting court feeds 30s faster than others

genEric · Jan 22, 2025

That explains the Alcaraz match! Odds shifted before my stream even showed first point ffs

morgan_c · Jan 22, 2025

Data breakdown of tennis live odds 2024-2025:

Pre shot-clock: 20-30% shifts normal
Post shot-clock: 150%+ regular
New data feeds: 200%+ common

Books protecting against inside info

nataly.k · Jan 22, 2025

December ATP finals were ridiculous. Watching with bf, odds changed before points even finished on our stream

bill_collins · Jan 23, 2025

Key issues identified:

Streaming delays 20-45 seconds
Court-side data variations
Different feed providers
Shot clock impact on pace

Books compensating with aggressive live odds

Susanna98 · Jan 23, 2025

Maybe just stick to pre-match? Live tennis seems more about tech than tennis now

vogafox · Jan 23, 2025

@Susanna98 pre-match showing weird patterns too. Books over-adjusting everything

genEric · Jan 23, 2025

Spent whole US Open series learning tennis betting just for this mess

Back to just watching I guess

DagaW · Jan 23, 2025

Asian books same issue. Even Pinnacle moving odds before points finish

chapman · Jan 23, 2025

local shop stopped tennis live completely after that meddy match at finals

M.Bato · Jan 23, 2025

Sources say some court-side scouts still getting edge. Books pushing odds trying to catch up

bill_collins · Jan 23, 2025

Recent market changes:

6 major books limited tennis live
4 increased margins 300%
2 stopped certain tournaments
All show pre-point odds movement

Tennis pre-match vs live odds difference is insane lately

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