gambling grows in China

Mulven

Mulven

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just read that macau casino revenue hit record $2.76bil in august. thats highest since before covid and analysts saying it could reach $31.8bil for the year. crazy how much money flows through there considering its basically the only legal gambling in china. anyone think this growth is sustainable?
 
The Macau figures are impressive but need context. While August 2025 was indeed the best month since January 2020, it's still only about 78% of pre-pandemic levels. The shift from VIP junket operations to mass market gambling has been significant. VIP sector collapsed after the Suncity/Tak Chun prosecutions (18 and 14 year sentences respectively), but mass market baccarat now represents nearly 60% of gross gaming revenue. The sustainability question is complex as Chinese consumer confidence remains tied to property market recovery and broader economic conditions.
 
interesting that mass market is driving growth now instead of high rollers. probably more sustainable long term since less dependent on small number of whales. baccarat dominance continues though - 52.3% market share projected. chinese players really love that game for whatever reason
 
bill_collins said:
The Macau figures are impressive but need context. While August 2025 was indeed the best month since January 2020, it's still only about 78% of pre-pandemic levels. The shift from VIP junket operations to mass market gambling has been significant. VIP sector collapsed after the Suncity/Tak Chun prosecutions (18 and 14 year sentences respectively), but mass market baccarat now represents nearly 60% of gross gaming revenue. The sustainability question is complex as Chinese consumer confidence remains tied to property market recovery and broader economic conditions.
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OK that makes sense Bill, easier to get to Macau makes more visitors and leads into more gambling. What i don' get is how they keep growing when mainland China is so anti-gambling. Thought Xi jinpings corruption crackdown would have killed the high roller market permanently
 
TheAddict said:
OK that makes sense Bill, easier to get to Macau makes more visitors and leads into more gambling. What i don' get is how they keep growing when mainland China is so anti-gambling. Thought Xi jinpings corruption crackdown would have killed the high roller market permanently
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it did kill the vip market mostly. thats why mass market is so important now. plus macau trying to rebrand as family entertainment destination not just casino hub. new properties have shopping malls concerts shows etc
 
Chinese gambling market evolution is fascinating from an economic perspective. Shift from VIP junkets to mass market represents a fundamental change in business model - lower individual stakes but much higher volume and frequency.
Mass market players tend to have shorter sessions but visit more regularly, creating steadier revenue streams compared to the volatile VIP sector that could swing billions based on a few players' fortunes. The integration of non-gaming amenities is crucial for sustainability. Properties like Venetian Macao and Galaxy now derive significant revenue from retail, dining, and entertainment beyond pure gambling. Technological integration is also advancing - mobile gaming platforms, cashless payments, and AI-driven customer analytics are enhancing the mass market experience while reducing operational costs.
Still key question remains whether Beijing continues tolerating this growth or implements new restrictions if gambling tourism becomes too prominent again.
 
macau is smart focusing on mass market. high roller business always risky cos it depends on few rich people who might disappear overnight. plus mass market probably brings more tourism spending outside casinos - hotels restaurants shopping etc
 
conker said:
china attitude to gambling is weird though. hate it internally but happy to let macau rake in billions from it
probably cos macau generates massive tax revenue that benefits beijing indirectly
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same as how china handles lots of things. officially banned but they benefit from the money it generates. macau is convenient loophole that lets them have gambling revenue without officially allowing gambling
 
what about online gambling tho? article said something about hainan province also gettin into casino business. seems like china slowlky opening up to more gambling not less
 
Hainan development is interesting but limited in scope. It's primarily focused on integrated resorts similar to Singapore's model rather than pure casino operations. China's aproach remains highly controlled - gambling is permitted only in specific administrative regions (Macau, limited operations in Hainan) while remaining strictly prohibited on the mainland. However, this growth occurs within Beijing's tolerance limits. Any return to the excessive VIP junket operations or money laundering activities that characterized the pre2015 era would likely trigger new regulatory restrictions. Chinese government views Macau''s gambling industry as acceptable provided it remains contained, generates tax revenue, and doesn't facilitate corruption or capital flight from the mainland.
 
dunover said:
Hainan development is interesting but limited in scope. It's primarily focused on integrated resorts similar to Singapore's model rather than pure casino operations. China's aproach remains highly controlled - gambling is permitted only in specific administrative regions (Macau, limited operations in Hainan) while remaining strictly prohibited on the mainland. However, this growth occurs within Beijing's tolerance limits. Any return to the excessive VIP junket operations or money laundering activities that characterized the pre2015 era would likely trigger new regulatory restrictions. Chinese government views Macau''s gambling industry as acceptable provided it remains contained, generates tax revenue, and doesn't facilitate corruption or capital flight from the mainland.
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i see so beijing tolerates it as long as it stays contained in macau. seems like tax revenue alone probably worth hundreds of millions to government. hard to argue with that kind of money i assume
 
good point @goatwack well i think macau has huge advantage being officially part of china. no visa requirements no currency exchange hassles plus the cultural familiarity. chinese mainlanders probably more comfortable gambling in macau than singapore or manila
 
Concert economy thing is genius. Bringing major entertainers like Jacky Cheung generates tourism that extends beyond just gambling. People come for the shows but end up gambling while they're there. Creates more diverse customer base than pure gambling tourism. Smart operators are copyng this model - entertainment first, gambling as secondary revenue stream.
 
still think the growth is temporary. chinese economy not doing great and property market still strugglin. when people feel poorer they gamble less. macau might be peaking right now imho
 
CoinDuffy said:
@0bi1 poor people gamble less what?! are you serious bro?
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hundred percent Duffy look Obi1 gambling can be countercyclical too. when people desperate they sometimes gamble more hoping to get rich quick. i guess it depends if its entertainment gambling or problem gambling driving the growth
 
yeah macau basically has monopoly on 1.4 billion chinese people who want to gamble legally. even capturing tiny percentage of that market is HUGE. doubt the growth stops anytime soon unless beijing changes policy
 
question is whether china ever legalizes gambling more widely or keeps macau as the only outlet. i bet theyre pretty happy with current setup where they get the tax revenue but can blame macau for any social problems
 
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