Recent content by vogafox

jumped on santa vs rudolf for like 50 spins and won 35x total across the sessoin. seems fine if you're just playing for fun but wouldn't grind it seriously. house edge is house edge regardless of the santa hat

alright locking in for weekend: liverpool over 2.5 (2u) - defensive chaos both sides chelsea ML (1.5u) - everton are shaky psg over 3.5 total vs metz (1u) - metz gonna get demolished btts marseille monaco (1u) - both score for sure skipping arsenal at 1.11, not worth the stress. also...

data supports it. brighton also conceded 3 to west ham and 2 to palace in recent weeks. defensive transitions are their weakness taking over 2.5 + btts parlay at combined 3.6 odds

yep variance will kill you at those prices even when you're "right" liverpool 1.67 is better value. brighton defense has been leaky and salah's in form despite all the transfer noise. over 2.5 goals there at 1.91 looks decent too

Single game results don't determine fair value. Market efficiency incorporates larger sample size. That said, Thunder's 16-game streak with +15.3 net rating supports current pricing. Not overvalued for sure

Futures odds right now (via Pinnacle): Thunder: -250 Knicks: +380 Magic: +900 Spurs: +1100 Market's pricing Thunder at ~71% to win it all. That's extraordinary confidence. For context, opening futures were: Thunder: +450 Lakers: +600 Knicks: +550 Bucks: +650 Massive market correction...

@x@nter Regular season H2H matters less in tournament format. Intensity and preparation are different. That said, Knicks won those games 120-109 and 108-101. Both comfortable margins. I'm leaning Knicks but not confident enough for full unit.

@pokerslave55 Expected value doesn't support it. Thunder -10.5 at -110 requires 52.4% hit rate for breakeven. Actual probability based on closing line value: ~71%. while Spurs ML at +350 would need ~22% win probability. Actual probability: ~15%. Both are negative EV from sharp perspective, but...

Damn that wasn't a basketball game, that was a public execution. Suns couldn't generate anything after Grayson Allen ejection (frustrated flagrant on Dort in 2nd). But they were already down 20 when it happened. OKC's help defense was suffocating - every drive met with 2-3 bodies, forcing...

that's until casino invents terms violation to void winnings friend. i understand frustration but it's really bad decision

look there's couple issues with offshore that people ignore like no dispute resolution if site decides not to pay, sites can disappear overnight with your balance, zero recourse if you get scammed also self-exclusion tools seen it happen multiple times. guy wins $15k, site asks for "additional...

@smiach pinnacle focuses on main markets (match result, totals, handicaps). they don't have as many props as bet365. so if you're prop bettor bet365 has more variety. if you're betting main markets pinnacle has better prices. tbh depends what you're betting

@chapman pinnacle actually doesn't limit as aggressively as recreational books. they're known for accepting sharp action. that's their whole business model. bet365 will cut you after few winning weeks. pinnacle might reduce limits eventually but nowhere near as fast

BetMGM limited me faster than anywhere else. consistent profits few months then suddenly 10% promo max and bet limits cut DraftKings took longer to limit. FanDuel still letting me play normal. if youre winning they dont want your action - simple as that...

video selfie with handwritten note is sometimes legitimate for high value withdrawals but combined with everything else its likely stalling tactic dont bother follow @shadow123 example and proceed with chargeback theyve had enough time