Recent content by vogafox

worth noting the same logic applies to the aggregate. the flagged $200m is mostly not one sophisticated operation, its a large number of people each having found something that felt free, most of whom would fail goldenfinger's repetition test if anyone applied it. those headline reads like...

and note which way the defendant needs it to go. van dyke needs event contracts to be bets rather than swaps. kalshi needs them to be swaps rather than bets, because that's the whole preemption argument against the states. so a soldier trying to avoid a commodities fraud conviction is arguing...

part i think matters more than the number is the composition. geopolitical markets accounting for most of the flagged volume isn't a coincidence and it isn't about sophisticated traders. sports outcomes have thousands of people with partial information and none with the whole picture. an...

worth adding both platforms have been building their own enforcement rather than waiting for anyone to require it. kalshi put in guardrails in march stopping politicians trading their own races and athletes trading their own leagues, after they'd already suspended and fined candidates in...

thats the honest limitation and it mirrors betfair pretty much. exchanges are excellent for main lines and poor for the long tail. the players with genuine edge in obscure props are the same ones sportsbooks limited fastest, and the exchange doesn't solve their problem because the liquidity...

unlikely to be retroactive on settled trades but michigan is exactly the scenario you're describing. a state court ordered trades cancelled and refunded. the cftc instructed kalshi not to comply. so the honest answer to "what happens to my open position if my state wins"is genuinelly unresolved...

well that volume comparison needs one qualifier. the 24bil is combined global volume across both platforms and includes everything - politics, economics, weather, sports, entertainment. the 14bil sportsbook figure is us regulated sports handle only. not measuring the same thing. the underlying...

use licensed for the baseline. the protection argument @dunover makes is valid. but if you're playing slots at volume, the rtp differential is now material enough to look at offshore for at least part of your volume - somewhere with strong track record on payouts and player protections even...

what the impact assessment didn't model effectively is what happens to demand that doesn't disappear. people don't stop gambling when it gets worse on licensed sites. they go to offshore sites where there is no 40% remote gaming duty, where RTPs are 96-98%, where bonus buys and auto spins still...

what i'm genuinely uncertain about is whether the FAIR BET Act actually passes before 2026 tax returns are due. even if it passes in late 2026 or early 2027 retroactive application to 2026 isn't guaranteed. which means everyone in this thread filing properly for 2026 should probably plan for the...

well phantom income problem is surely the worst part. the math is straightforward but people don't realize what it means until they run the numbers. if your total winnings are $200,000 and total losses are $200,000 you've had a break-even year. under 2025 rules: $0 taxable gambling income...

structural issue with any new regulated market is the initial period where books are competing hard on welcome offers but the ongoing product quality hasn't been established yet. what you want to do on launch is register across the four or five books you'll use long-term, take the best welcome...

cross-sell numbers are the more interesting metric. world cup bettors new to the platform subsequently engaged with other sports and casino at 40% higher rates than customers acquired through domestic sports. that's the long-term value proposition for the operators. the tournament is acquisition...

yeah haaland had it in the group stage but norway lost to france 4-1 in a match where they were without him for parts. he came back but the team around him looked exposed at the highest level. ivory coast won their group after a rough start. at even money to advance there's a case for it...

closing line value on senegal will tell you whether that +260 is real value or the market knows something about their squad status. the five-goal destruction of iraq is the argument for. the france and norway defeats are the argument against. closing line is probably senegal around +220-230...