Recent content by vogafox

worth understanding what the exemptions tell you,because they're more informative than the headline. horse racing stays at 15%. self service terminals inside a licensed shop stay at 15% because they aren't classed as remote. Bingo duty was 10% and has been abolished outright. Casino floor duty...

exactly @nataly.k that's structural problem. dual-currency model was designed to avoid being classified as gambling for regulatory purposes. the entire point was to sit outside the gambling framework. consequence players are discovering now is that sitting outside the gambling framework also...

legal mechanism here is worth understanding because it's the whole story. sweepstakes casinos operated in a grey zone by using a dual-currency model. you buy "gold coins" for entertainment, you get "sweeps coins" free that are redeemable for cash. the argument was that the purchasable currency...

underlying issue is that convenience and compliance are now in direct tension for eu crypto players in a way they werent before. the old usdt trc-20 flow was convenient AND ran through compliant exchanges because usdt was still listed. mica severed that. now you pick: convenient (workarounds...

@Scott1baird that distinction is traced well today and it's underappreciated. fair game with a house edge is a known quantity. you can calculate your expected loss and decide if the entertainment is worth it. and market where an unknown fraction of outcomes are predetermined by people betting...

structural problem is that esports betting volume has completely outrun the integrity infrastructure. you have thousands of tier 2 and tier 3 matches with real betting markets and almost no monitoring. the money that can be made fixing a $10,000 tournament dwarfs the prize pool by orders of...

arms race has a commercial logic though. complexity obscures the math. a simple three-reel game, you can feel the RTP working against you. twelve stacking random features with configurable RTP across three versions, you have no intuitive sense of what's happening to your money. the noise isn't a...

configurable RTP point slotking raised earlier is the one that actually matters and it gets ignored every time one of these threads comes up. a slot isn't a fixed product. dog house megaways 1000 exists as 96.5, 95.5 and 94.5. the airport slot as 96.07, 94.06, 92.05. same game, same art, same...

worth noting the same logic applies to the aggregate. the flagged $200m is mostly not one sophisticated operation, its a large number of people each having found something that felt free, most of whom would fail goldenfinger's repetition test if anyone applied it. those headline reads like...

and note which way the defendant needs it to go. van dyke needs event contracts to be bets rather than swaps. kalshi needs them to be swaps rather than bets, because that's the whole preemption argument against the states. so a soldier trying to avoid a commodities fraud conviction is arguing...

part i think matters more than the number is the composition. geopolitical markets accounting for most of the flagged volume isn't a coincidence and it isn't about sophisticated traders. sports outcomes have thousands of people with partial information and none with the whole picture. an...

worth adding both platforms have been building their own enforcement rather than waiting for anyone to require it. kalshi put in guardrails in march stopping politicians trading their own races and athletes trading their own leagues, after they'd already suspended and fined candidates in...

thats the honest limitation and it mirrors betfair pretty much. exchanges are excellent for main lines and poor for the long tail. the players with genuine edge in obscure props are the same ones sportsbooks limited fastest, and the exchange doesn't solve their problem because the liquidity...

unlikely to be retroactive on settled trades but michigan is exactly the scenario you're describing. a state court ordered trades cancelled and refunded. the cftc instructed kalshi not to comply. so the honest answer to "what happens to my open position if my state wins"is genuinelly unresolved...

well that volume comparison needs one qualifier. the 24bil is combined global volume across both platforms and includes everything - politics, economics, weather, sports, entertainment. the 14bil sportsbook figure is us regulated sports handle only. not measuring the same thing. the underlying...