Recent content by morgan_c

there's a market structure consequence nobody has raised. as if event contracts on geopolitical or corporate events carry genuine insider risk, the liquidity providers have to price it. either the platforms stop listing those markets, or they list them and spreads widen to compensate for the...

worth being careful in both directions there. the rebuttal came from someone on the platform side with an obvious interest in the number being smaller, same as bloomberg has an interest in it being big. neither is neutral. substantive point in the rebuttal is fair though. a leaderboard...

mechanically: a bookmaker sets a price, takes the other side, profits from the margin built into that price. an exchange matches you against another participant and takes a commission. no position in the outcome. legally in the us the argument is that an event contract is a derivative. you buy a...

driven by what @HughRoller said. limited and restricted accounts flowing to a venue that structurally cannot limit them. kalshi is an exchange. you're matched against another trader, not against the house. the platform takes a fee on volume. a winning participant is a revenue source, not a...

yeah, documentation burden didn't change but the stakes for accurate documentation increased. every un-documented session is now more expensive than it was in 2025

and obviously offshore migration is what we get as the result. professional and high-volume bettors are now facing genuine financial incentive to move volume to platforms that don't feed W-2G data to the IRS. not saying people are doing it. saying the incentive structure changed in a meaningful...

yea province estimates 70% of igaming in alberta is currently happening on unregulated grey market sites. that's roughly $500M+ per year that's been flowing to curacao-licensed operators with no provincial tax contribution. the launch is primarily a tax capture mechanism as much as a consumer...

operator economics are more player-friendly than ontario's model. alberta operators keep approximately 77.6% of net revenue after the 20% provincial tax and first nations contribution deductions. ontario runs at 20% revenue share with iGO on top of provincial obligations. means better potential...

this world cup has effectively been the largest single validation event for legal us sports betting since it launched. 39 states legal now vs 19 in 2022. every state that legalized between 2022 and 2026 is collecting tax revenue on world cup handle that previously went entirely offshore...

USA up 1-0 first half. bosnia haven't had a shot. then 2nd in second half and bosnia is done fairly my -280 moneyline looked comfortable but i wanted -750 advance money back badly. im not touching at -750 live anyway. book wants too much juice at that price

ghana. kansas city

messi first goalscorer props represent the messi liability problem for books. same way the usa outright represents the home team liability problem. caesars specifically said "days we get smoked" are when messi scores two and mbappe scores two in the same session. multiple days like that already...

at betmgm: 15.3% of all tickets on france, 20.4% of money. spain just behind at 20.5% handle but most of that was pre-tournament at longer prices. caesars confirmed USA is their largest single liability in the tournament. if usa win this thing multiple sportsbooks feel genuine financial pain...

monitoring infrastructure question goes beyond mlb. same granular microbet markets exist across all major sports. the same detection gap exists wherever individual participant conduct can influence a specific measurable outcome. the clase case was baseball. the structure of the problem is universal

from a market perspective the delay to nov is actually worse for prop bet restoration than a may conviction would have been. a conviction in may clears the integrity question definitively. a nov trial that then goes to appeals adds another 12-18 months of uncertainty. books have no commercial...