Recent content by HughRoller

fair points all round and i dont have a good answer to laura's one. what i keep coming back to is nobody chose this. the sportsbooks limited every profitable customer they had for a decade and pushed them toward the one venue that couldn't do it. now that venue is bigger than they are, sits...

Helena sweetie kalshi is us accounts, you'd need to satisfy their onboarding. polymarket has the us entity and the global one with its own restrictions depending where you are. and its getting messier internationally too, turkiye reportedly blocked polymarket and there's a czech block over...

mate thats kinda cynical read and probably the right one but whats the actual legal position. someones going to win this eventually

i've been on prediction markets almost exclusively since february after draftkings put me on twelve dollars and i want to talk about whats actually happening here because i don't think most people on this board have clocked it. april numbers: kalshi and polymarket combined did around 24 billion...

💯% downloading every single statement from every single book i've ever touched going back to jan 1 is a nightmare pal. some of these books make this ridiculously hard. DraftKings W2G portal works. BetMGM is a nightmare. FanDuel okay. a couple of smaller books where i have accounts basically have...

hmm winnings tax free? that's actually... i need a minute

$380k in, $365k out, $15k net. that's not making $380k. that's the whole point man

Just imagine this your single year of table: winnings: $380,000 losses: $365,000 net profit: $15,000 so under old rules: pay tax on $15,000. makes sense, that's what i actually earned. under new rules: can only deduct $328,500 of losses. suddenly i have $51,500 in taxable income instead of...

what bout usa?

watched. have a small play on england -1.5 goals at +175. thought england should be better than their group stage suggested and congo DR conceded in all three group games. needed england to remember how to score

usa vs bosnia today too. usa -280 moneyline, -750 to advance. in san francisco. at levi's stadium. with a full partisan crowd. after the group stage performance. bosnia are +800 to win outright i had usa at +5000 before the tournament and then took some profit at +2500 after the paraguay game...

man i had a small piece of paraguay at +25000 before the tournament and then FORGOT ABOUT IT. found the betslip in my phone notes yesterday. that woulda been something also had germany -1.5 in that game at -115. watched the whole 120 minutes with my face in my hands. never been more relieved to...

wonderin if anyone know bout any books have quietly started raising the pitch prop limit again or is it universally still $200 across all operators. haven't checked every book recently

sure mate broader integrity monitoring failure is real but i want to go back to the books for a second. DraftKings and FanDuel were the primary operators taking pitch prop action in Ohio and nationally. they have sophisticated trading operations. they have CLV analysis running constantly. and...

honestly might not come back at all. once books realise how much less liability they carry without pitch props they're not in a hurry to reintroduce them even after a conviction. the $200 limit was sold as a temporary integrity measure. these temporary measures have a way of becoming permanent...