Recent content by bill_collins

If anyone using these platforms, nothing changes today. You are not at risk of an insider trading charge for having an opinion. What changes over a longer horizon is the regulatory character of the venue. These cases establish that market abuse law reaches event contracts. That invites the...

Still pending as far as I can find, which isn't unusual at this stage. What's more interesting is that his case and the Van Dyke case now both turn on the same question, and it isn't whether they did it. Van Dyke is the Special Forces sergeant charged over the Maduro contracts. Bought...

That's the strongest argument the states have and it's noticeably underused in their filings, probably for the reason @firstleague gave. The gap @laura_BETTS describes is real. State exclusion lists are administered by state gaming regulators and have no reach into a CFTC-regulated venue. No...

The legal question is narrow and everything turns on it: are sports event contracts "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act? If they are, they fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and state gambling law is preempted. If they're not, they're bets and the states regulate them. Kalshi's entire...

Petfre (Gibraltar), the online arm: £2.87m, September 2022, social responsibility and AML £240,000, October 2025, online slot game breaches £900,000, June 2026 Done Brothers (Cash Betting), the retail arm, roughly 1,300 to 1,400 shops: £825,000, December 2025, social responsibility and...

The two positions aren't actually in conflict, which is what makes this uncomfortable. Affordability checks operate on deposit thresholds. You cross an arbitrary line, you supply documents, regardless of whether your behaviour indicates any problem at all. That catches recreational players who...

The government's own impact assessment said this. They expected it to result in a reduction in consumer demand, which they valued as a feature not a bug. The stated goal includes discouraging gambling by making it more expensive for the player. The mechanism is just less direct than taxing the...

Let me put some structure around what you're all describing. Remote Gaming Duty went from 21% to 40% on April 1, 2026. That's the largest single gambling tax increase in UK history. The government's own impact assessment said operators would pass up to 90% of the duty increase to consumers...

I agree that's not accurate and is not advice anyone should follow.

Got some bad news for you guys - the UK model doesn't tax player winnings because the tax is collected entirely at the operator level through Remote Gaming Duty and General Betting Duty. Which was 21% on remote gaming until April 2026, when it jumped to 40%. So players in the UK aren't taxed...

Worth adding context on why this provision exists. It wasn't a deliberate gambling policy. The Senate version of the OBBBA had to satisfy the Byrd Rule - a procedural requirement that budget reconciliation bills can't increase the deficit beyond the 10-year window. Various provisions were...

@m0r0n that is a more accurate summary of regulated market transitions than most academic papers on the subject.

The timing is deliberate. DraftKings EVP called it "a particularly exciting moment for sports fans in the province." The World Cup round of 16 runs July 13-16 and the final is July 19. They are launching into the busiest betting week of the year on purpose. From a business standpoint it's a...

Bet365's Ontario registration eventually happened but they were not on launch day. Alberta may be different - the July 13 date aligns perfectly with the World Cup final on July 19, which is their biggest annual betting event. Launching in an active jurisdiction during the biggest sporting event...

Ontario's regulated market is now four years old and the data is broadly positive for player experience. The market delivered its strongest year in 2025. Competition between operators kept odds quality better than the pre-launch grey market environment where major books had no incentive to price...