Recent content by bill_collins

This is likely to become clearer over the next tax season when licensed operators have a full year of reporting data. The SIGAP system is capturing transaction data from licensed operators. Whether that feeds automatically to individual tax assessments or requires player self-declaration will...

The crypto route works until it doesn't. Exchange platforms operating in Brazil are required to report large transactions and suspicious activity to COAF. The flow from fiat to exchange to casino to exchange to fiat is traceable if someone wants to trace it. It's not zero risk - it's just a...

@ValDes is correct on the reporting side. What's still somewhat unclear is the practical enforcement mechanism for players as opposed to operators. The operators pay 18% GGR tax (raised from 12% in October). The player-side 15% on winnings above the threshold is the player's responsibility to...

Effectively yes. The gambling industry adopted it from financial regulation.

Know Your Customer. In practice: proof of identity, usually passport or driving licence, plus proof of address, usually a utility bill or bank statement. For gambling specifically it often also involves source of wealth documentation at higher amounts. Evidence that the money you're depositing...

The German framework is a reasonable case study. The GlüStV 2021 introduced some of the most restrictive online slot conditions in Europe. The offshore migration that followed was predictable and was predicted at the time. The cumulative effect of the €1 cap, mandatory delays, and OASIS was to...

The data retention point has merit but worth separating the two questions. Licensed operators under GDPR have specific data protection obligations. Offshore no-KYC sites have none. So the choice isn't between safe and unsafe data handling. It's between regulated handling and unregulated. Which...

The motivated reasoning concern is valid but prefight quotes are performance as much as anything. Canelo has been saying versions of this for fifteen years. I wouldn't weight them heavily against a 63-fight record.

He's 63-3-2 at 36. Three losses across 68 professional fights with Crawford the most recent. The decline narrative is more emotionally compelling than it is statistically at this stage. His output dropped against Crawford but Crawford is genuinely elite. Mbilli's approach is considerably more...

Massachusetts Gaming Commission is also reviewing limiting practices. Wyoming data showed fewer than 1% of accounts limited, mostly for bonus abuse rather than performance. Whether that's representative of larger competitive markets is unclear - Wyoming is not New Jersey.

Worth noting that most books prohibit multiple accounts from the same individual in their terms of service. Not saying don't do it - nearly everyone does and enforcement is inconsistent - but it's worth being aware that the strategy @shadow123 describes technically puts you in breach of account...

New York is the only US jurisdiction that's attempted it formally. The practical challenge is that without limiting ability books would either price markets so conservatively that value disappears or stop offering certain markets entirely. Pinnacle operates without limiting by welcoming sharp...

That's true but it's also why we have independent testing labs and licensing requirements. The question isn't whether manipulation is possible - it is, and some unregulated operators do it. The question is whether assuming it every time you lose reflects evidence or the bias.

What you're describing is self-serving bias. Wins get attributed to skill or to luck working in our favour. Losses get attributed to external causes. It's documented across most decision-making contexts - gambling just has a convenient specific target to point at. The harder part to sit with is...

That is a remarkably self-aware thing to say. Most people don't get that far.