Recent content by _local_nerd_

going to keep an eye on the sdny docket for both of them. van dyke's lawyers said they'd move to dismiss the indictment by the 31st so that lands this week, and the pre-motion conference on the cftc side is with judge carter and its kinda interesting question in neither case is whether the...

thats about it yeah

@goldenfinger 's right, and thats already visible in the countermeasure. split the position across several fresh wallets funded from different sources and every signal polysights uses degrades at once. wallet age stops being informative, concentration stops being informative, size per wallet...

also nobody in the coverage seems to have actually done that, which is its own tell

@morgan_c thats where i landed too. the aggregate methodology critique is arguable either way. the specific wallet figure is either right or it isn't and its verifiable on chain by anyone who wants to spend an afternoon

bloomberg businessweek ran an analysis last week thats worth reading properly because the methodology is the actual story, not the headline number. they took roughly 34,000 transactions flagged by an analytics outfit called polysights, august 2025 through june 2026, all on polymarket's global...

fbi, twice this year, successfully

worth noting kalshi and polymarket aren't the same architecture and people keep flattening them. kalshi is a cftc-designated contract market. us entity, kyc'd accounts, fiat rails, order book not on chain. polymarket runs a us entity plus a global exchange, and the global one settles on chain...

correct framing. most of these arguments are people using different metrics and talking past each other. the underlying question is underspecified - best at peak, best sustained, best right now, most culturally significant, widest game diversity. each one gives a legitimately different answer

@pixelboi 70% is off by a decent margin, flash's brood war win rate was closer to 80% ran some numbers on the main candidates anyway faker: ~66% game win rate across 13 years in lck, 6 world titles, first player ever to reach 100 wins at worlds flash: ~80% career win rate in brood war, primarily...

From a technical angle, it sounds like their core is: - Aggregation of existing providers (NetEnt, Microgaming, Pragmatic, Evolution, etc.) - Plus support for blockchain‑native games where the provider exposes provably fair logic You can roll your own provably fair system (seed + hash, nonce...

consistency metrics support the championship run.. cloud averaged 1.34 rating across playoffs and giantx won 7 straight maps after dropping one to ramboot in ro16

correlation between favorites and unders is typically positive so parlay has statistical merit

bovada showing 73% of bets on thunder spread but only 68% of money so regular public on thunder but larger bets more distributed

okc's par defense efficiency is 3.2 standard deviations above league average.. spurs' offensive rating without wembanyama drops to 106.8 line movement opened -9, moved to -10.5 within 6 hours. sharp indicator